Wisconsin Supreme Court race sees sharp drop in spending

Just one year ago, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, jetted to Wisconsin where he donned a foam Cheesehead, handed out a couple of giant $1 million checks, and declared that “the entire destiny of humanity” would be shaped by the outcome of the state Supreme Court race.

Musk’s check giveaway in Green Bay capped off an intense 2025 election for the state’s highest court that drew national attention, flooded the airwaves with campaign ads, and triggered record-breaking spending that topped $100 million.

But this year, most people across the country – and many in Wisconsin – barely even seem to know there’s a Supreme Court race. The number of people who voted early has dropped dramatically, and spending on the 2026 race is just a fraction — about 5% — of what it was last year.

Voters today will choose between liberal state Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor and conservative state Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar. The winner will be elected to a 10-year term on the state’s highest court.

This is the third Supreme Court election in the last four years. After a string of victories, liberals now hold a 4-3 majority on the court and will keep their majority regardless of who wins. A Taylor victory would extend the liberal majority to 5-2, while a win by Lazar would maintain the current 4-3 split.

“The majority is not up for grabs, so political actors – especially out of state — are not engaged in the race,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.

He added that even though Musk and others spent millions trying to elect Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in the 2025 race, he lost by about 10 percentage points to liberal Justice Susan Crawford. It was a similar margin to the 2023 race, in which liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz defeated Dan Kelly, a conservative former state Supreme Court justice.

“Certainly, there is discouragement among Republicans and conservatives after having lost four of the last five Supreme Court elections, despite pouring unprecedented amounts of money into the last two races,” Franklin said.

There is also a competitive governor’s race— and contested legislative races — in November, so some of the typically deep-pocketed donors may be saving their money until the fall.

Taylor, who got in the race about five months before Lazar, has outraised and outspent her opponent by a wide margin.

Campaign finance reports filed early last week showed Taylor had raised about $5.6 million in the race to replace conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley, who announced last year that she was not seeking reelection. Lazar reported raising about $900,000 since she got in the race in October.

Totals posted online on Wisconsin’s Campaign Finance Information System on April 6 were slightly higher, showing Taylor had raised about $6.2 million and Lazar had brought in about $1.2 million. Those totals include monetary and in-kind contributions.

The divide grows even wider when spending by outside groups is included. Data released in late March by AdImpact, which tracks television and digital political advertising, showed Taylor and her supporters had outspent Lazar and her backers by about 15 to 1.

The advertising spending totals, which were provided by AdImpact on March 25, showed Taylor had spent nearly $3.3 million compared to Lazar at about $255,000.

Liberal groups, including A Better Wisconsin Together, were also far outspending conservative groups, such as the Republican Party of Dane County, AdImpact numbers show.

The fundraising and spending numbers are clearly far below those in the 2025 Supreme Court race, which eclipsed $100 million and shattered national records for money spent on a judicial race.

A little over 324,000 Wisconsin voters cast their ballots early for the election. That is about 77% of all that received an absentee ballot. In comparison, around 694,000 cast their ballots early in the previous Supreme Court race, about 93% of all those who received an absentee ballot.

The final voter turnout in the race will, of course, include how many people cast their ballots at the polls today.

As far as early voting, the turnout for this Supreme Court election so far is lower compared to the two previous state Supreme Court races. However, experts previously told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the turnout in this election is typical of an average Supreme Court election. The previous two elections were highly contentious.

Even before Lazar got in the race, there were warning signs it could be a tough election for any conservative candidate.

Bradley announced in August that she wasn’t seeking reelection in a scathing statement.

“The conservative movement needs to take stock of its failures, identify the problem, and fix it,” Bradley said. “I will not seek reelection to the Wisconsin Supreme Court because I believe the best path for me to rebuild the conservative movement and fight for liberty is not as a minority member of the Court.”

Melissa Moore Baldauff, a Democratic strategist and former top aide to Gov. Tony Evers, said that Wisconsin voters want an impartial court.

“After ending the conservative stranglehold on our judiciary, Wisconsinites have gotten used to having a fair and independent state Supreme Court that protects the constitutional rights of all Wisconsinites and keeps extremists in check,” she said.