Will public opinion sway US Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage rulings?

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So if the Supreme Court takes public opinion into consideration — as some pundits assert was the case in Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.’s switched vote on the health care decision — what does that mean for the upcoming cases involving same-sex marriage rights?

Next term the Court will likely take up the challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act, which denies federal marriage benefits to same-sex couples, as well as California’s Proposition 8, a voter-imposed ban on gay marriage in that state.

As polls show a steady increase of support for same-sex marriages among Americans, could that be a factor in the justices’ opinion? In a blog post for The New Yorker, Richard Socarides suggests so. If Roberts votes with a majority to uphold DOMA and Prop 8, he could find himself at odds with American public opinion – and also in the position to have to reverse himself later if the issue returns to the Court for a second time, Socarides argues:

“Historically, it is in these situations that public opinion matters and can be significant, as it was with the Court’s rulings on civil-rights issues. It’s never an issue of the Court looking to public opinion for the result — but they do look to the direction the country is headed, and at its normative values, to see if the result will be accepted by the governed.”