Unemployment specter hovers

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Diane S. Diel wasn’t sure what to make of it.

She recently visited with some University of Wisconsin Law School students. She saw a lot of glum faces.

“I asked, ‘What’s happening? Are you finding jobs? Are you all OK?’ And I only heard from one person,” said Diel, president of the State Bar of Wisconsin. “The only person willing to talk was a woman who took a job with a law firm with a number of offices around the country. And she said, ‘I just told them, ‘I don’t want to be in Detroit.’”

Unemployment numbers seem to multiply daily — the jobless rate was 6.7 percent at mid-month — as the economy continues to sour. Retailers have been hard hit. Auto companies teeter on the edge of extinction. Banks have folded.

But what about lawyers?

So far, the picture isn’t clear.

The state does not break down unemployment numbers by profession.

Federal statutes are hard to find, although some figures suggest legal service jobs are down slightly since November 2007.

Some Anxiety

That leaves word of mouth. And, so far, few people are really talking.

“Wisconsin is not folding up right now,” Diel said. “That part’s clear. There is not that level of anxiety out there. There’s anxiety — you better believe it. But, so far, I have not heard any really terrible, horrible things.”

Diel hasn’t gotten any urgent calls at the State Bar announcing major firm lay-offs. Not that she would; if firms are cutting back, it’s understandable that partners might want to keep that quiet.

Anecdotally, Diel has heard that bankruptcy attorneys are doing well. Divorce lawyers not so much; divorce filings typically fall off around the holidays, but this year people just can’t afford to split their households, said Diel, a divorce lawyer.

Gauging with Graduates

December law school graduates might be another barometer.

A total of 14 students will graduate this month from Marquette Law School in Milwaukee, said Paul Katzman, assistant dean of career planning.

As of mid-November, 11 grads had jobs. The other three wouldn’t talk about their job status, leaving administrators to conclude they came up empty-handed.

Anxiety typically increases at this time of year, as some students graduate law school and others build toward graduation in the spring.

“I think it’s just heightened this year,” Katzman said. “With the economy, they are starting to think maybe there’s not a significant degree of light at the end of the tunnel.

Maybe the opportunities won’t be there.

“We won’t see for a few months because most of the students don’t get jobs ’til spring semester,” Katzman said.

Those who land jobs with big firms should be pretty comfortable, he predicted. But relatively few graduates land big-firm jobs right out of school.

Most new lawyers end up at smaller firms, building their experience until they can graduate again, in a sense, to a larger firm.

For them, the future wasn’t quite as clear.

Will smaller firms take advantage of the recession to hire students who might otherwise be wooed by bigger practices? Or, will they settle into a kind of hiring hibernation until the economy thaws?

“We don’t know. We’re sort of holding our breath in that regard,” Katzman said.

Waiting for Spring

Spring recruitment could be a sign.

Law firms should notify Katzman soon about whether they’ll be sending recruiters to campus. There’s no need to make firm plans for spring at Christmas time. But, Katzman said, in the past some standing arrangements had been made by now.

He wasn’t sure what to make of that.

“There are a lot of signals out there that say, ‘Uh oh.’ There are stories, anecdotally, about legal offices with layoffs. But not a lot.”

The situation is reminiscent of the economic climates Diel and Katzman faced when they finished law school.

Diel said legal jobs were scarce in the 1970s, an era of gas shortages and political upheaval — sound familiar?

Things weren’t much easier in the early 1990s, Katzman remembered.

“Firms folded throughout the country. Partners were let go,” he said.

“I haven’t seen anything at that level. You just hear about a person here or there. Is this going to be a harbinger? That’s the $64,000 question. We’ll see, won’t we?”